Jan 26, 2008

Forex Technical Analysis for 01/28-02/01 Week

EUR/USD trend: sell.
GBP/USD trend: hold.
USD/JPY trend: buy.
EUR/JPY trend: hold.

Floor Pivot Points:
Pair 3rd Sup 2nd Sup 1st Sup Pivot 1st Res 2nd Res 3rd Res
EUR/USD 98.3103 49.8734 98.3517 49.9148 98.3931 49.9562 98.4345
GBP/USD 1.8987 1.9162 1.9497 1.9672 2.0007 2.0182 2.0517
USD/JPY 102.27 103.62 105.18 106.53 108.09 109.44 111.00
EUR/JPY 145.84 148.98 152.84 155.98 159.84 162.98 166.84

Woodie's Pivot Points:
Pair 2nd Sup 1st Sup Pivot 1st Res 2nd Res
EUR/USD 74.1022 146.8093 74.1436 146.8507 74.1850
GBP/USD 1.9162 1.9497 1.9672 2.0007 2.0182
USD/JPY 103.62 105.18 106.53 108.09 109.44
EUR/JPY 148.98 152.84 155.98 159.84 162.98

Camarilla Pivot Points:
Pair 4th Sup 3rd Sup 2nd Sup 1st Sup 1st Res 2nd Res 3rd Res 4th Res
EUR/USD 146.8072 146.8186 146.8224 146.8262 146.8338 146.8376 146.8414 146.8528
GBP/USD 1.9551 1.9691 1.9738 1.9784 1.9878 1.9925 1.9971 2.0112
USD/JPY 105.13 105.93 106.20 106.46 107.00 107.26 107.53 108.33
EUR/JPY 152.86 154.79 155.43 156.07 157.35 157.99 158.64 160.56

Fibonacci Retracement Levels:
Pairs EUR/USD GBP/USD USD/JPY EUR/JPY
100.0% 1.4779 1.9848 107.89 159.11
61.8% 1.4621 1.9653 106.78 156.44
50.0% 1.4572 1.9593 106.44 155.61
38.2% 1.4523 1.9533 106.09 154.78
23.6% 1.4463 1.9458 105.67 153.76
0.0% 1.4365 1.9338 104.98 152.11

Euro Rises as Dollar Weak on Average Releases

Today EUR/USD again showed a good level of gains, recovering from the major drop that was seen on Monday. It's already up by almost 0.8% and is looking strong. The reason for this behavior lies in the good Eurozone fundamental data and average data from U.S. today.

Initial jobless claims report for the last week showed an insignificant drop by 1,000 compared to previous 302,000 (which has been revised up from 301,000). The analysts expected a growth to 320,000 that week.

The report by National Association of Realtors on Existing home sales in December showed a bigger than expected decline — to 4.89 million from 5,00 million in November (annually adjusted).

Crude oil inventories in U.S. continued to grow in the past week, rising up 2.3 million barrels, compared to previous value. This growth can mean a domestic demand decline and the wish to increase the inventories while the oil prices are quite low.

Forex Technical Analysis for 01/21-01/25 Week

EUR/USD trend: sell.
GBP/USD trend: sell.
USD/JPY trend: sell.
EUR/JPY trend: sell.

Floor Pivot Points:
Pair 3rd Sup 2nd Sup 1st Sup Pivot 1st Res 2nd Res 3rd Res
EUR/USD 1.4167 1.4378 1.4499 1.4710 1.4831 1.5042 1.5163
GBP/USD 1.9169 1.9340 1.9447 1.9618 1.9725 1.9896 2.0003
USD/JPY 102.49 104.20 105.53 107.24 108.57 110.28 111.61
EUR/JPY 148.20 151.94 154.07 157.81 159.94 163.68 165.81

Woodie's Pivot Points:
Pair 2nd Sup 1st Sup Pivot 1st Res 2nd Res
EUR/USD 1.4356 1.4453 1.4688 1.4785 1.5020
GBP/USD 1.9340 1.9447 1.9618 1.9725 1.9896
USD/JPY 104.20 105.53 107.24 108.57 110.28
EUR/JPY 151.94 154.07 157.81 159.94 163.68

Camarilla Pivot Points:
Pair 4th Sup 3rd Sup 2nd Sup 1st Sup 1st Res 2nd Res 3rd Res 4th Res
EUR/USD 1.4436 1.4528 1.4558 1.4589 1.4649 1.4680 1.4710 1.4802
GBP/USD 1.9400 1.9477 1.9502 1.9528 1.9578 1.9604 1.9629 1.9706
USD/JPY 105.18 106.01 106.29 106.57 107.13 107.41 107.69 108.52
EUR/JPY 152.96 154.58 155.11 155.65 156.73 157.27 157.80 159.42

Tom DeMark's Pivot Points:
Pair: EUR/USD GBP/USD USD/JPY EUR/JPY
Resistance: 1.4937 1.9672 109.43 161.81
Support: 1.4605 1.9394 106.39 155.94

Fibonacci Retracement Levels:
Pairs EUR/USD GBP/USD USD/JPY EUR/JPY
100.0% 1.4922 1.9790 108.96 161.56
61.8% 1.4795 1.9684 107.80 159.32
50.0% 1.4756 1.9651 107.44 158.63
38.2% 1.4717 1.9618 107.08 157.93
23.6% 1.4668 1.9578 106.64 157.08
0.0% 1.4590 1.9512 105.92 155.69

Euro Down Fastest Since December

EUR/USD unexpectedly fell today after the moderate fundamental statistics were released in the United States. This currency pair declined from 1.4803 opening price to 1.4656 making it the largest daily drop for EUR/USD since December 14.

CPI (Consumer Price Index) in December showed a better than expected growth, increasing by 0.3% - still lower than in previous month (0.8%), but above the forecasted 0.2%.

Net foreign purchases of the long-term securities in November were at quite a high level - $90.9 billion, but lower than October's $114.0 billion.

December's industrial production stalled with 0% change, but that can be considered a good news, because the negative change has been expected. Industrial capacity utilization dropped slightly, going down from 81.6% (revised from 81.5%) to 81.4%.

U.S. crude oil inventories last week showed a gain at last increasing by almost 4.3 billion barrels after the previous report of 6.7 billion barrels dropdown.

How to avoid making psychological mistakes while currency trading

Amelie Gam is an Internet writer for Forex Trading Plus. She just wrote an interesting article on psychological aspect of currency trading.

According to Amelie, a trader exposes himself/herself to the higher risk of loss when he or she :

- doesn't control human emotions;

- acts upon fear or hope without basing own feelings on real facts;

- exploits other people’s human emotions (people who are constant in their mistakes can not gain success and earn money);

- is not disciplined, doesn't make plans, doesn't follow strategies, doesn't apply mathematical and money management principles;

- doesn't run only profitable trades and doesn't try to cut losses as fast as possible;

- uses rumors and advice without being certain of their authenticity and quality.

To be successful you have to think independently of the majority and stick out from the crowd. Currency trading is safer than other trading methods, but if you want to have an edge over other competitors than try to be wise and research first, study other people’s behavior and choose from them only the best.

Foreign Currency Trading

Forex - (short for Foreign Exchange) is real-time buying of one currency and selling of another. One of the biggest trading markets in the world, trading foreign currency allows people to trade one currency for another trying to determine which currency's value will increase by the end of a determined time. For example, one could choose to buy the US Dollar against the Euro in anticipation for a rate change in favor of the US Dollar. The foreign currency trading market is considered the largest financial market in the world with average daily trading rates currently amassing to over three trillion US Dollars.

To start with, remember that the first currency listed is called the "base currency." A base currency is usually the US dollar. People (traders) will usually pit the USD against another currency – say, for example, a Japanese Yen.

The American dollar is usually considered the base currency for quotes. For example, a quote of USD/JPY 2.34 means that one U.S. dollar is equal to 2.34 Japanese Yen.

When the U.S. dollar is the base unit and a currency quote goes up, it means the dollar has increased in value and the other currency has weakened. If, after the allotted time, the USD/JPY quote is 2.50, then the dollar is stronger because it can buy more Japanese Yen. There are exceptions to the rule, such as the British pound (GBP) or Euro, which would be the base currency if matched against the US Dollar. In this case the American currency is the "weaker" one.

To sum up: if a currency quote goes higher, this increases the value of the base currency. A lower quote means the base currency is weakening.

Forex Trading Tips

Why do hundreds of thousands online traders and investors trade the forex market every day, and how do they make money doing it?

This two-part report clearly and simply details essential tips on how to avoid typical pitfalls and start making more money in your forex trading.

  1. Trade pairs, not currencies - Like any relationship, you have to know both sides. Success or failure in forex trading depends upon being right about both currencies and how they impact one another, not just one.
  2. Knowledge is Power - When starting out trading forex online, it is essential that you understand the basics of this market if you want to make the most of your investments.

    The main forex influencer is global news and events. For example, say an ECB statement is released on European interest rates which typically will cause a flurry of activity. Most newcomers react violently to news like this and close their positions and subsequently miss out on some of the best trading opportunities by waiting until the market calms down. The potential in the forex market is in the volatility, not in its tranquility.

  3. Unambitious trading - Many new traders will place very tight orders in order to take very small profits. This is not a sustainable approach because although you may be profitable in the short run (if you are lucky), you risk losing in the longer term as you have to recover the difference between the bid and the ask price before you can make any profit and this is much more difficult when you make small trades than when you make larger ones.
  4. Over-cautious trading - Like the trader who tries to take small incremental profits all the time, the trader who places tight stop losses with a retail forex broker is doomed. As we stated above, you have to give your position a fair chance to demonstrate its ability to produce. If you don't place reasonable stop losses that allow your trade to do so, you will always end up undercutting yourself and losing a small piece of your deposit with every trade.
  5. Independence - If you are new to forex, you will either decide to trade your own money or to have a broker trade it for you. So far, so good. But your risk of losing increases exponentially if you either of these two things:

    Interfere with what your broker is doing on your behalf (as his strategy might require a long gestation period);

    Seek advice from too many sources - multiple input will only result in multiple losses. Take a position, ride with it and then analyse the outcome - by yourself, for yourself.

  6. Tiny margins - Margin trading is one of the biggest advantages in trading forex as it allows you to trade amounts far larger than the total of your deposits. However, it can also be dangerous to novice traders as it can appeal to the greed factor that destroys many forex traders. The best guideline is to increase your leverage in line with your experience and success.
  7. No strategy - The aim of making money is not a trading strategy. A strategy is your map for how you plan to make money. Your strategy details the approach you are going to take, which currencies you are going to trade and how you will manage your risk. Without a strategy, you may become one of the 90% of new traders that lose their money.
  8. Trading Off-Peak Hours - Professional FX traders, option traders, and hedge funds posses a huge advantage over small retail traders during off-peak hours (between 2200 CET and 1000 CET) as they can hedge their positions and move them around when there is far small trade volume is going through (meaning their risk is smaller). The best advice for trading during off peak hours is simple - don't.
  9. The only way is up/down - When the market is on its way up, the market is on its way up. When the market is going down, the market is going down. That's it. There are many systems which analyse past trends, but none that can accurately predict the future. But if you acknowledge to yourself that all that is happening at any time is that the market is simply moving, you'll be amazed at how hard it is to blame anyone else.
  10. Trade on the news - Most of the really big market moves occur around news time. Trading volume is high and the moves are significant; this means there is no better time to trade than when news is released. This is when the big players adjust their positions and prices change resulting in a serious currency flow.
  11. Exiting Trades - If you place a trade and it's not working out for you, get out. Don't compound your mistake by staying in and hoping for a reversal. If you're in a winning trade, don't talk yourself out of the position because you're bored or want to relieve stress; stress is a natural part of trading; get used to it.
  12. Don't trade too short-term - If you are aiming to make less than 20 points profit, don't undertake the trade. The spread you are trading on will make the odds against you far too high.
  13. Don't be smart - The most successful traders I know keep their trading simple. They don't analyse all day or research historical trends and track web logs and their results are excellent.
  14. Tops and Bottoms - There are no real "bargains" in trading foreign exchange. Trade in the direction the price is going in and you're results will be almost guaranteed to improve.
  15. Ignoring the technicals- Understanding whether the market is over-extended long or short is a key indicator of price action. Spikes occur in the market when it is moving all one way.
  16. Emotional Trading - Without that all-important strategy, you're trades essentially are thoughts only and thoughts are emotions and a very poor foundation for trading. When most of us are upset and emotional, we don't tend to make the wisest decisions. Don't let your emotions sway you.
  17. Confidence - Confidence comes from successful trading. If you lose money early in your trading career it's very difficult to regain it; the trick is not to go off half-cocked; learn the business before you trade. Remember, knowledge is power.

The second and final part of this report clearly and simply details more essential tips on how to avoid the pitfalls and start making more money in your forex trading.

  1. Take it like a man - If you decide to ride a loss, you are simply displaying stupidity and cowardice. It takes guts to accept your loss and wait for tomorrow to try again. Sticking to a bad position ruins lots of traders - permanently. Try to remember that the market often behaves illogically, so don't get commit to any one trade; it's just a trade. One good trade will not make you a trading success; it's ongoing regular performance over months and years that makes a good trader.
  2. Focus - Fantasising about possible profits and then "spending" them before you have realised them is no good. Focus on your current position(s) and place reasonable stop losses at the time you do the trade. Then sit back and enjoy the ride - you have no real control from now on, the market will do what it wants to do.
  3. Don't trust demos - Demo trading often causes new traders to learn bad habits. These bad habits, which can be very dangerous in the long run, come about because you are playing with virtual money. Once you know how your broker's system works, start trading small amounts and only take the risk you can afford to win or lose.
  4. Stick to the strategy - When you make money on a well thought-out strategic trade, don't go and lose half of it next time on a fancy; stick to your strategy and invest profits on the next trade that matches your long-term goals.
  5. Trade today - Most successful day traders are highly focused on what's happening in the short-term, not what may happen over the next month. If you're trading with 40 to 60-point stops focus on what's happening today as the market will probably move too quickly to consider the long-term future. However, the long-term trends are not unimportant; they will not always help you though if you're trading intraday.

  6. The clues are in the details - The bottom line on your account balance doesn't tell the whole story. Consider individual trade details; analyse your losses and the telling losing streaks. Generally, traders that make money without suffering significant daily losses have the best chance of sustaining positive performance in the long term.

  7. Simulated Results - Be very careful and wary about infamous "black box" systems. These so-called trading signal systems do not often explain exactly how the trade signals they generate are produced. Typically, these systems only show their track record of extraordinary results - historical results. Successfully predicting future trade scenarios is altogether more complex. The high-speed algorithmic capabilities of these systems provide significant retrospective trading systems, not ones which will help you trade effectively in the future.

  8. Get to know one cross at a time - Each currency pair is unique, and has a unique way of moving in the marketplace. The forces which cause the pair to move up and down are individual to each cross, so study them and learn from your experience and apply your learning to one cross at a time.
  9. Risk Reward - If you put a 20 point stop and a 50 point profit your chances of winning are probably about 1-3 against you. In fact, given the spread you're trading on, it's more likely to be 1-4. Play the odds the market gives you.

  10. Trading for Wrong Reasons - Don't trade if you are bored, unsure or reacting on a whim. The reason that you are bored in the first place is probably because there is no trade to make in the first place. If you are unsure, it's probably because you can't see the trade to make, so don't make one.

  11. Zen Trading- Even when you have taken a position in the markets, you should try and think as you would if you hadn't taken one. This level of detachment is essential if you want to retain your clarity of mind and avoid succumbing to emotional impulses and therefore increasing the likelihood of incurring losses. To achieve this, you need to cultivate a calm and relaxed outlook. Trade in brief periods of no more than a few hours at a time and accept that once the trade has been made, it's out of your hands.

  12. Determination - Once you have decided to place a trade, stick to it and let it run its course. This means that if your stop loss is close to being triggered, let it trigger. If you move your stop midway through a trade's life, you are more than likely to suffer worse moves against you. Your determination must be show itself when you acknowledge that you got it wrong, so get out.

  13. Short-term Moving Average Crossovers - This is one of the most dangerous trade scenarios for non professional traders. When the short-term moving average crosses the longer-term moving average it only means that the average price in the short run is equal to the average price in the longer run. This is neither a bullish nor bearish indication, so don't fall into the trap of believing it is one.

  14. Stochastic - Another dangerous scenario. When it first signals an exhausted condition that's when the big spike in the "exhausted" currency cross tends to occur. My advice is to buy on the first sign of an overbought cross and then sell on the first sign of an oversold one. This approach means that you'll be with the trend and have successfully identified a positive move that still has some way to go. So if percentage K and percentage D are both crossing 80, then buy! (This is the same on sell side, where you sell at 20).

  15. One cross is all that counts - EURUSD seems to be trading higher, so you buy GBPUSD because it appears not to have moved yet. This is dangerous. Focus on one cross at a time - if EURUSD looks good to you, then just buy EURUSD.

  16. Wrong Broker - A lot of FOREX brokers are in business only to make money from yours. Read forums, blogs and chats around the net to get an unbiased opinion before you choose your broker.
  17. Too bullish - Trading statistics show that 90% of most traders will fail at some point. Being too bullish about your trading aptitude can be fatal to your long-term success. You can always learn more about trading the markets, even if you are currently successful in your trades. Stay modest, and keep your eyes open for new ideas and bad habits you might be falling in to.

  18. Interpret forex news yourself - Learn to read the source documents of forex news and events - don't rely on the interpretations of news media or others.

How to avoid typical pitfalls and start making more money in your forex trading

Fiorenzo Fontana, a trader and analyst at UBS wrote a very interesting article containing a lot of tips on how to avoid typical pitfalls and start making more money in forex trading.

All of his tips are very interesting and useful. Some of the less known are as follows:
  • Trade pairs, not currencies
  • Don't place very tight orders
  • Use reasonable stop losses
  • Increase your leverage in line with your experience and success
  • Don't trade during off peak hours
  • The best time to trade is when news is released
  • If you place a trade and it's not working out for you, get out
  • Trade in the direction the price is going
  • Learn the business before you trade - possibly the most important tip!

In the second part of the article, Fiorenzo gives a number of interesting tips relating to trader's behavior and psychology. Again, some of the less known are:

  • Focus on your current position(s) and place reasonable stop losses at the time you do the trade
  • Focus on one cross at a time
  • Don't trust demos - demo trading often causes new traders to learn bad habits. Once you know how your broker's system works, start trading small amounts and only take the risk you can afford to win or lose (new traders - remember that!)
  • Stick to your strategy and invest profits on the next trade that matches your long-term goals
  • Don't trade if you are bored, unsure or reacting on a whim
  • Read forums, blogs and chats around the net to get an unbiased opinion before you choose your broker

Fibonacci Numbers and the Golden Ratio - 3 Tips for Greater Trading Profits

In this report, we will look at the history and background of Fibonacci numbers and The Golden Ratio. We will then outline three specific money management tips that can help increase your profit potential.

Support and resistance levels are an important consideration for most traders to help identify entry and exit points when trading. Fibonacci percentage "retracement" levels based upon the Fibonacci number sequence and golden ratio are very popular with many traders but what are they exactly?

What are Fibonacci Numbers and the Golden Ratio?

The Fibonacci sequence first appeared as the solution to a problem in the Liber Abaci, a book written by Leonardo Fibonacci in 1202 to introduce the Hindu-Arabic numerals used today to a Europe still using Roman numerals.

The original problem in the Liber Abaci posed the question: How many pairs of rabbits can be generated from a single pair, if each month each mature pair brings forth a new pair, which, from the second month, becomes productive.

The Golden Ratio

After the first few numbers in the Fibonacci sequence, the ratio of any number to the next higher number is approximately .618, and the lower number is 1.618. These two figures are the golden mean or the golden ratio.

Its proportions are pleasing to the human senses and it appears throughout biology, art, music, and architecture. A few examples of natural shapes based on the Golden Ratio include DNA molecules, sunflowers, snail shells, galaxies, and hurricanes.

Important Retracement Levels

The two Fibonacci percentage retracement levels considered the most important in trading are 38.2% and 62.8%. Other important retracement percentages include 75%, 50%, and 33%. Three Profit Tips for Using Fibonacci Numbers

1. Fibonacci Defines Stop Loss Levels

A trader can use Fibonacci numbers to set stop loss orders.

For instance, if at least three Fibonacci price levels come together in a relatively tight zone, a stop loss placement just below or above the zone may be set.

A Fibonacci number helps define stops in the following way, if a trader trades against a support zone, if the support zone is violated and the price trades below that zone, the reason for the trade is negated and the position should be closed.

Setting stops using Fibonacci retracements takes the emotion out of trading and gives a pre defined exit point.

2. Fibonacci Defines Position Size

Depending on the risk you are prepared to take per trade, Fibonacci numbers can also define position size. For instance, if prices are right on a specific level, you may wish to have more positions than if the price is further away.

3. Fibonacci Defines Objectives

With Fibonacci numbers, once a pattern completes against a Fibonacci price zone you can use them to set profit objectives to bank partial profits or tighten stop loss levels. This clear objective for traders helps them to lock in profits. The great advantage of Fibonacci numbers and the golden ratio is the fact that they take the emotion out of trading and can define not only stop losses to exit a market, but also set profit objectives as well.

W D Gann and Fibonacci - The Perfect Trading Combination!

One trader who incorporated Fibonacci numbers and The Golden Ratio into his trading was the legendary trader W D Gann. We feel that the use of Fibonacci numbers with the Gann trading method provides traders with the best possible combination to seek long term trading profits.

Jan 25, 2008

Market participants

Source: Euro money FX survey

Top 10 Currency Traders % of overall volume,May 2007 Rank

Name

% of volume

1

Deutsche Bank

19.30

2

UBS AG

14.85

3

Citi

9.00

4

Royal Bank of Scotland

8.90

5

Barclays Capital

8.80

6

Bank of America

5.29

7

HSBC

4.36

8

Goldman Sachs

4.14

9

JPMorgan

3.33

10

Morgan Stanley

2.86














Unlike a stock market, where all participants have access to the same prices, the forex market is divided into levels of access. At the top is the inter-bank market, which is made up of the largest investment banking firms. Within the inter-bank market, spreads, which are the difference between the bid and ask prices, are razor sharp and usually unavailable, and not known to players outside the inner circle. As you descend the levels of access, the difference between the bid and ask prices widens (from 0-1 pip to 1-2 pips only for major currencies like the Euro ). This is due to volume. If a trader can guarantee large numbers of transactions for large amounts, they can demand a smaller difference between the bid and ask price, which is referred to as a better spread. The levels of access that make up the forex market are determined by the size of the “line” (the amount of money with which they are trading). The top-tier inter-bank market accounts for 53% of all transactions. After that there are usually smaller investment banks, followed by large multi-national corporations (which need to hedge risk and pay employees in different countries), large hedge funds, and even some of the retail forex market makers. According to Galati and Melvin, “Pension funds, insurance companies, mutual funds, and other institutional investors have played an increasingly important role in financial markets in general, and in FX markets in particular, since the early 2000s.” (2004) In addition, he notes, “Hedge funds have grown markedly over the 2001–2004 period in terms of both number and overall size” Central banks also participate in the forex market to align currencies to their economic needs.













Fed Dramatically Lowers Interest Rates

Last week, the New York Times published an article with the byline "Is the Federal Reserve’s chairman, Ben Bernanke too nice for the job?" Apparently, talk had been building on Wall Street that Bernanke was not tough enough to deal with the growing problems faced by the world's largest economy. Bernanke responded publicly in a speech in which he promised that the Fed would act quickly and decisively to confront such problems. Then on Tuesday, the critics were silenced peremptorily by a Fed rate cut of 75 basis points, the largest single cut in two decades. Moreover, Bernanke intimated that additional rate cuts could come as soon as next week.

It's unclear how this activity will affect the Dollar. On the one hand, it implies beyond a reasonable doubt that the US economy is indeed headed for recession. Bond yields are declining and the stock market has lost 15% of its value since October. On the other hand, the Fed has demonstrated that it is willing and able to take the necessary steps to avoid a hard landing at any cost. At the same time, investors around the world fear that a US recession will have an adverse impact on the global economy. And where do investors park their money during periods of global economic uncertainty? Answer: USA. Sure enough, the Dollar has already begun to rally after taking a big hit immediately following the rate cuts.

Jan 24, 2008

forex introduction and definition

For those unfamiliar with the term, FOREX (FOReign EXchange market), refers to an international exchange market where currencies are bought and sold. The Foreign Exchange Market that we see today began in the 1970's, when free exchange rates and floating currencies were introduced. In such an environment only participants in the market determine the price of one currency against another, based upon supply and demand for that currency.

FOREX is a somewhat unique market for a number of reasons. Firstly, it is one of the few markets in which it can be said with very few qualifications that it is free of external controls and that it cannot be manipulated. It is also the largest liquid financial market, with trade reaching between 1 and 1.5 trillion US dollars a day. With this much money moving this fast, it is clear why a single investor would find it near impossible to significantly affect the price of a major currency. Furthermore, the liquidity of the market means that unlike some rarely traded stock, traders are able to open and close positions within a few seconds as there are always willing buyers and sellers.

Another somewhat unique characteristic of the "forex money market"is the variance of its participants. Investors find a number of reasons for entering the market, some as longer term hedge investors, while others utilize massive credit lines to seek large short term gains. Interestingly, unlike blue-chip stocks, which are usually most attractive only to the long term investor, the combination of rather constant but small daily fluctuations in currency prices, create an environment which attracts investors with a broad range of strategies.

How FOREX Works

Transactions in foreign currencies are not centralized on an exchange, unlike say the NYSE, and thus take place all over the world via telecommunications. Trade is open 24 hours a day from Sunday afternoon until Friday afternoon (00:00 GMT on Monday to 10:00 pm GMT on Friday). In almost every time zone around the world, there are dealers who will quote all major currencies. After deciding what currency the investor would like to purchase, he or she does so via one of these dealers (some of which can be found online). It is quite common practice for investors to speculate on currency prices by getting a credit line (which are available to those with capital as small as $500), and vastly increase their potential gains and losses. This is called marginal trading.

Marginal Trading

"Marginal trading" is simply the term used for trading with borrowed capital. It is appealing because of the fact that in FOREX investments can be made without a real money supply. This allows investors to invest much more money with fewer money transfer costs, and open bigger positions with a much smaller amount of actual capital. Thus, one can conduct relatively large transactions, very quickly and cheaply, with a small amount of initial capital. Marginal trading in an exchange market is quantified in lots. The term "lot" refers to approximately $100,000, an amount which can be obtained by putting up as little as 0.5% or $500.

EXAMPLE: You believe that signals in the market are indicating that the British Pound will go up against the US Dollar. You open 1 lot for buying the Pound with a 1% margin at the price of 1.49889 and wait for the exchange rate to climb. At some point in the future, your predictions come true and you decide to sell. You close the position at 1.5050 and earn 61 pips or about $405. Thus, on an initial capital investment of $1,000, you have made over 40% in profits. (Just as an example of how exchange rates change in the course of a day, an average daily change of the Euro (in Dollars) is about 70 to 100 pips.)

When you decide to close a position, the deposit sum that you originally made is returned to you and a calculation of your profits or losses is done. This profit or loss is then credited to your account.

Investment Strategies: Technical Analysis and Fundamental Analysis

The two fundamental strategies in investing in FOREX are Technical Analysis or Fundamental Analysis. Most small and medium sized investors in financial markets use Technical Analysis. This technique stems from the assumption that all information about the market and a particular currency's future fluctuations is found in the price chain. That is to say, that all factors which have an effect on the price have already been considered by the market and are thus reflected in the price. Essentially then, what this type of investor does is base his/her investments upon three fundamental suppositions. These are: that the movement of the market considers all factors, that the movement of prices is purposeful and directly tied to these events, and that history repeats itself. Someone utilizing technical analysis looks at the highest and lowest prices of a currency, the prices of opening and closing, and the volume of transactions. This investor does not try to outsmart the market, or even predict major long term trends, but simply looks at what has happened to that currency in the recent past, and predicts that the small fluctuations will generally continue just as they have before.

A Fundamental Analysis is one which analyzes the current situations in the country of the currency, including such things as its economy, its political situation, and other related rumors. By the numbers, a country's economy depends on a number of quantifiable measurements such as its Central Bank's interest rate, the national unemployment level, tax policy and the rate of inflation. An investor can also anticipate that less quantifiable occurrences, such as political unrest or transition will also have an effect on the market. Before basing all predictions on the factors alone, however, it is important to remember that investors must also keep in mind the expectations and anticipations of market participants. For just as in any stock market, the value of a currency is also based in large part on perceptions of and anticipations about that currency, not solely on its reality.

"Make Money with Currency Trading on FOREX"

FOREX investing is one of the most potentially rewarding types of investments available. While certainly the risk is great, the ability to conduct marginal trading on FOREX means that potential profits are enormous relative to initial capital investments. Another benefit of FOREX is that its size prevents almost all attempts by others to influence the market for their own gain. So that when investing in foreign currency markets one can feel quite confident that the investment he or she is making has the same opportunity for profit as other investors throughout the world. While investing in FOREX short term requires a certain degree of diligence, investors who utilize a technical analysis can feel relatively confident that their own ability to read the daily fluctuations of the currency market are sufficiently adequate to give them the knowledge necessary to make informed investments.