Mar 12, 2008

EUR/USD Technical Analysis 12 March 2008

EUR/USD 1.5361 - 12 March

EUR/USD Open 1.5339 High 1.5481 Low 1.5283 Close 1.5340

The Euro continued climbing yesterday to High 1.5481 till 14:00 GMT when the announcement by FED was to to lend as much as $200 billion in US Treasuries helped the US Dollar recover to 1.5285, which are the first resistance and support levels respectively for today. Next resistance upwards is 1.5530, followed by 1.5600. In downward direction next support is at 1.5215, which is 23.6% Fibonacci correction of the rise 1.4440 - 1.5455, and the lowest rate from 5 March at 1.5150.

Technical resistance levels: 1.5480 1.5530 1.5600

Technical support levels: 1.5285 1.5215 1.5150

Trading range: 1.5350 - 1.5415

Trend: Upward

Buy at 1.5361 SL 1.5331 TP 1.5401

Yesterday we made +50 pips profit on EUR/USD from the following signal:

6:03 GMT Buy EUR/USD at 1.5355 SL 1.5329 TP 1.5405 TP reached at 9:18 GMT

Total yesterday +136, as shown at www.zifx.com/performance.php

Technical analysis for crosses(EUR/GBP)-3/12/2008


(EUR/GBP)

The Euro dropped heavily yesterday against the Pound after reaching the major resistance level at 0.7680 which hold the pair from acquiring the 0.77 target, while the support at 0.7630 provided the pair with the strength to incline back again, the short term technical indicators are showing more upside potential, while the point at 0.7630 offers strong demand for the pair.

Support0.76400.76300.76150.76000.7590
Resistance0.76500.76650.76800.76900.7700

Recommendation

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Technical analysis for crosses(GBP/JPY)-3/12/2008

(GBP/JPY)

Investors' risk appetite was boosted yesterday on the news the Feds will provide more liquidity to the financial system, increasing carry trades as a result which drove the Pound in a bullish wave against the Yen, the short term technical indicators though started showing downside potential in an expected correctional wave, and the point at 205.90 offers strong demand for the pair.

Support207.13206.42205.90205.34204.67
Resistance207.75208.28208.84209.54210.21

Recommendation

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Fed move spurs stocks upwards, oil near record



LONDON (Reuters) - World equity markets rose on Wednesday in reaction to large gains on Wall Street which followed Federal Reserve-led moves to inject billions of dollars of liquidity into cash-starved credit markets.

Oil stayed close to its near-$110 a barrel record high but the dollar eased back after gaining in the previous session, as currency traders became skeptical about whether the measures could solve problems in the economy or the credit market.

Deep concerns among investors about the threat of another round of last year's credit crisis were at least temporarily assuaged when the Fed said on Tuesday it would allow financial firms to swap securities backed by home mortgages for some $200 billion in Treasury bonds.

This was supported by other liquidity-inducing efforts by the European Central Bank, Bank of Canada, Bank of England and Swiss National Bank.

The moves spurred the S&P 500 index of leading U.S. stocks to its biggest daily gain since October 2005 with a 3.71 percent rise, a mood that continued to spill over into the rest of the world on Wednesday.

"The Fed's decision to get funds for credit markets has soothed investor sentiment," said Hwang Geum-dan, an analyst at Samsung Securities in Seoul, adding that economic fundamentals nonetheless remained grim.

Europe's FTSEurofirst 300 index was up 1.4 percent, having gained the same amount on Tuesday. Earlier, Japanese stocks rose 1.6 percent with the benchmark Nikkei rising 202.85 points to 12,861.13 and the broader TOPIX climbing 19.98 points to 1,255.13.

Despite the immediate euphoria, stressed world credit markets -- where trading in a broad range of securities including some euro zone government bonds and U.S. municipal bonds had seized up over the past week -- remain a concern to investors.

Credit Suisse, for example, said it did not believe the problems would go away. "We expect to see more hedge fund collapses, more forced sales and more extreme price movements in the near term," it said in a note.

DOLLAR, OIL DECLINE

The dollar, which has been battered by the deteriorating U.S. economy and prospects of lower U.S. interest rates, eased back towards record lows versus the euro as a pick-up in risk appetite prompted by the central bank measures petered out.

"It's a bit of a reality check. The Fed's action obviously is welcome but it doesn't really fix the economy," said Martin McMahon, FX strategist at Credit Suisse in Zurich.

The dollar fell 0.3 percent against a basket of six major currencies to 73.039, edging towards a record low of 72.462 set at the end of last week.

It also eased 0.2 percent to 103.16. The euro was up a quarter of a percent on the day at $1.5368.

Oil prices were steady after hitting a record near $110 overnight, doing little to ease concerns about the world economy. U.S. crude for April delivery was up 37 cents at

$109.12 a barrel, just below its record $109.72.

Euro zone government bonds were trying to consolidate at lower levels after a sharp sell-off the previous session.

The June Bund future was 9 ticks lower at 117.37. Two-year yields were 5.6 basis points higher at 3.383 percent, while 10-year yields were flat at 3.800 percent.

Lufthansa sees further profit rise this year



1 year chart for Deutsche Lufthansa AG




FRANKFURT (Reuters) - Germany's Deutsche Lufthansa (LHAG.DE: Quote, Profile, Research) expects operating profit to rise again this year as air travel continues to grow even as financial markets stutter and fuel prices hover at record levels.


The positive trend was expected to continue in 2009, Lufthansa said in its annual report on Wednesday.

"The perspectives for the aviation industry are full of promise," Chief Executive Wolfgang Mayrhuber said in a statement.

"In spite of the current uncertainty in the financial markets, the economic conditions remain good for Lufthansa. There have been no ground-breaking changes in terms of the fundamental conditions or the need for mobility."

Shares in Lufthansa were 1.7 percent higher at 15.28 euros by 4:32 a.m. EDT, outperforming a 1.4 percent gain on the German blue-chip DAX index .GDAXI.

"The strong outlook is a positive surprise for us," Equinet analyst Jochen Rothenbacher said in a note.

Mayrhuber's optimism for 2008 was echoed on Wednesday by smaller German rival Air Berlin (AB1.DE: Quote, Profile, Research), despite a drop in 2007 operating profit that missed its own expectations.
Lufthansa said a condition for raising the operating result in 2008 from the record 1.38 billion euros ($2.12 billion) -- a 63 percent rise -- achieved last year was being able to continue to compensate for high fuel prices

Fuel costs rose 15 percent to 3.86 billion euros last year, though the weak dollar brought these costs down by 7.3 percent and hedging saved 109 million euros.

Lufthansa said this week it was raising the fuel surcharges it imposes on passengers on European and domestic routes to 17 euros each way. It charges 77 euros each way on long-haul flights. Crude oil has almost reached $110 a barrel.

The company said earnings last year were also helped by the performance at airline Swiss, which contributed cost and revenue synergies of 233 million euros. Swiss has been fully consolidated in Lufthansa's accounts since July.

Lufthansa had reported last month that 2007 revenue rose 13 percent to 22.42 billion euros. Net profit more than doubled to 1.655 billion euros.

The carrier has said it would propose raising the dividend for last year to 1.25 euros a share from 0.70 euros for the previous year.

Air Berlin on Wednesday posted full-year earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) of 21.5 million euros, down from 64.2 million in the previous year.

"Although the preliminary results for 2007 do not meet our expectations, we have cause for optimism for 2008," CEO Joachim Hunold said in a statement. "We are also pleased with the current bookings situation."

Air Berlin stock was down 1 percent at 9.30 euros.