6 Gold and Mining Stocks to Watch

Even with the market in a frenzy, gold is still in demand. Especially now that the Feds cut rates by 75bp, you can expect the trend to continue. I have claimed GLD to be my true love in the past because of its supreme run, and this is just one example of a solid play on gold.

With that said, here are 6 different stocks that are involved in gold, or gold and silver mining that should be on your watch close watch list.

Goldcorp, GG Stock is looking quite juicy right now at just above $35 a share, with the stock hitting a high last week of $39.94. If the 50 day moving average can start to uptrend again, watch out. As of this post GG stock rests at $35.06.

GG Stock Chart, Click to View

Barrick Gold Corp, ABX stock has strong exposure internationally and mines gold alongside copper. The stock has found fantastic support recently at $45 which has to have the bulls happy, and is seeing short term resistance around $50. As of this post ABX stock is trading at a last of $48.10.

ABX Stock Chart, Click to View

Randgold Resources, GOLD stock is a play on gold in Africa. The stock has had a fantastic run since early September running from $25 all the way to $45, and as of this post lies at $43.27.

GOLD Stock Chart, Click to View

Kinross Gold, KGC stock has moved nicely as well since early September, and just yesterday the stock found great support at $19 and its 50 day moving average. KGC is a buy above $21.50 and easily has potential to move up to $25 if Gold stocks overall continue to press higher. As of this post KFC sits at $20.20

KGC Stock Chart, Click to View

Buenaventura Comp, BVN stock has seemed to find support at its 50 day moving average, but has fallen under key support area $60 which makes me skeptical. Last week the stock peaked out near $71, and as of this post is at a last of $58.32.

BVN Stock Chart, Click to View

Last but not least everyone has to know about the Streettracks Gold Trust, GLD ETF. $86 is the key level here for the bulls and this ETF has been a favorite since it was trading in the low $70s. Look for intraday resistance between $88 and $90. GLD as of this post is at a last of $87.89.

GLD ETF Chart, Click to View

Ryanair profit declines 27% outlook Airline warns that fiscal 2008 profit could fall as much as 50%

LONDON (MarketWatch) -- Shares of Ryanair Holdings Plc declined 12% on Monday as Europe's largest low-cost airline reported a 27% drop in adjusted third-quarter profit because of lower ticket prices, and warned that higher fuel prices and weaker consumer spending could cut next year's profit by as much as 50%.

Third-quarter net income at the budget carrier slipped to 47.2 million euros from 47.7 million euros a year earlier. Excluding a one-time gain of 12 million euros from the disposal of aircraft, adjusted profit fell 27% to 35 million euros.

Passenger traffic rose 16% to 12.4 million. Sales climbed 16% to 569 million euros as a 30% increase in ancillary revenue offset a 4% drop in yields, also known as ticket prices.

Ancillary revenue includes revenue from food sold on the plane, luggage charges and commissions on auto rentals and hotels booked through Ryanair's (RYA)(RYAAY) Web site.

The airline said it's on track to meet its ancillary sales target of 20% of revenue over the next three years and the planned introduction of in-flight mobile phone services on 25 planes this spring should further pad revenue.

Ryanair Chief Executive Michael O' Leary called the results a "creditable performance in very adverse market conditions" and confirmed the outlook for profit of roughly 470 million euros this year.

'Significant chance' that profit could decline

But the airline was much more cautious on the view for next year, saying that while it is too early to make an "accurate forecast," fuel prices hovering around $90 a barrel and fears of recession in the U.K. and many other European economies mean the current outlook is poor.

As a result, it said there is a "significant chance" that profit could decline as much as 50% in fiscal 2008 if ticket prices fall 5% and oil trades around $85 a barrel. In the best case scenario, assuming average fares are flat and oil prices fall to $75, Ryanair would post a 6% rise in profit to 500 million euros.

Ryanair shares were last down 13% in London morning trading. The weakness spread to the many other airlines. Shares of low-cost rival EasyJet (EZJ) fell 7.1%. Shares of German low-cost Air Berlin (AB1000) dropped 2.7%. See London Markets.

O' Leary reminded investors that the airline is unhedged for next year and said the 40% increase in fuel prices will impose "significantly higher costs" in a year when it plans to expand capacity by 20%.

The airline also said the slump in consumer confidence would likely result in flat or lower average ticket prices in 2008 and the recent weakness of the pound would bite.

"The European airline sector is presently facing one of these cyclical downturns, with possibility of a 'perfect storm' of higher oil prices, poor consumer demand, weaker sterling and higher costs at unchecked monopoly airports such as Dublin and Stansted," O' Leary said.

In response, Ryanair plans to slash ticket prices to stimulate demand, but said its low cost base means it would remain profitable in case of a recession.

But Deutsche Bank analyst Chris Reid doesn't think too much of the airline's cost base. He said in a note to clients Monday that Ryanair is not getting the benefit of its volume growth in its unit cost base, which is resulting in "business model failure."

Aude Lagorce is a senior correspondent for MarketWatch in London.

Japan stocks rise on Microsoft factor

Shares in Softbank soared as much as 16% and Yahoo Japan was untraded due to a flood of buy orders on Monday in Tokyo, on hopes a potential Microsoft acquisition of Yahoo would boost the Japanese firms’ competitiveness, reports Reuters. Microsoft’s $44.6bn bid for Yahoo announced Friday was priced at $31 per share - a 62% premium to Yahoo Inc’s Thursday close. Internet and mobile phone service company Softbank owns 3.9% of Yahoo Inc in terms of voting rights. Yahoo Japan is owned 41% by Softbank and 33% by Yahoo Inc. The deal, if realised, would be highly positive for Yahoo Japan, said one analyst, as Microsoft’s financial prowess and technological expertise would help Yahoo Inc and Yahoo Japan compete better with Google in internet search services. Meanwhile, a weekend report in the Nikkei business newspaper said that a Microsoft acquisition of Yahoo Inc would likely result in an alliance among Microsoft, Softbank and Yahoo Japan.

Microsoft + Yahoo = Microsoft - $44.6 billion

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Microsoft Corp (MSFT.O: Quote) has made an unsolicited offer to buy Yahoo Inc (YHOO.O: Quote) for $44.6 billion in cash and stock, seeking to join forces against Google Inc (GOOG.O: Quote) in what would be the biggest Internet deal since the Time Warner-AOL merger.

In its boldest-ever acquisition move, Microsoft said on Friday it offered $31 per share for Yahoo, or a 62 percent premium over the Internet media company's closing stock price on Nasdaq Thursday.

Yahoo, whose shares jumped to $30.75 in premarket trading, said it would evaluate the bid.

Microsoft shares, which have a market capitalization of about $300 billion, fell 6 percent to $30.78.

New Services from FOREX.com

More trading opportunities.
You can now trade four new currency pairs at FOREX.com - AUD/NZD, AUD/CAD,
GBP/AUD, GBP/CAD. These new cross currency pairs allow traders to directly target trading opportunities in the so-called “commodity” currencies.

Even more research.
Now you can access more research from within the platform; session recaps and pivot points are available from within our FOREXTrader platforms.

Published three times daily at the close of each major market session, the session recaps provide actionable insight on the market. Pivot point calculations can help you determine significant support and resistance levels to anticipate trend shifts, especially when used in conjunction with other technical indicators.

More trader education.
Sharpen your trading skills with enhanced Learn To Trade Forex training program. The new course features updated information and additional lessons. Also, as part of the program you now have unlimited access to an experienced FX instructor.

Also added half-day intensive training sessions with FOREX.com’s team of seasoned FX instructors in cities worldwide.

Even more convenient funding options.
Deposits in five currencies - USD, EUR, AUD, CAD, CHF and GBF. You can now withdraw funds online from MyAccount.

Your satisfaction matters.
Feed Back:

“We’re always eager to hear your ideas for improving FOREX.com. In fact, in our latest client survey many of you asked for pivot points and additional currency pairs - and we’re more than happy to deliver. Keep the suggestions coming!”

We’re also happy to report over 90% of survey respondents would recommend FOREX.com to their friends. If you feel the same, check out our Refer a Friend program. Every time you refer a friend who opens and funds a FOREX.com account, you’ll both have the opportunity to earn up to $250.

Forex Technical Analysis for 01/28-02/01 Week

EUR/USD trend: sell.
GBP/USD trend: hold.
USD/JPY trend: buy.
EUR/JPY trend: hold.

Floor Pivot Points:
Pair	3rd Sup	2nd Sup	1st Sup	Pivot	1st Res	2nd Res	3rd Res
EUR/USD	98.3103	49.8734	98.3517	49.9148	98.3931	49.9562	98.4345
GBP/USD	1.8987	1.9162	1.9497	1.9672	2.0007	2.0182	2.0517
USD/JPY	102.27	103.62	105.18	106.53	108.09	109.44	111.00
EUR/JPY	145.84	148.98	152.84	155.98	159.84	162.98	166.84

Woodie's Pivot Points:
Pair	2nd Sup	1st Sup	Pivot	1st Res	2nd Res
EUR/USD	74.1022	146.8093	74.1436	146.8507	74.1850
GBP/USD	1.9162	1.9497	1.9672	2.0007	2.0182
USD/JPY	103.62	105.18	106.53	108.09	109.44
EUR/JPY	148.98	152.84	155.98	159.84	162.98

Camarilla Pivot Points:
Pair	4th Sup	3rd Sup	2nd Sup	1st Sup	1st Res	2nd Res	3rd Res	4th Res
EUR/USD	146.8072	146.8186	146.8224	146.8262	146.8338	146.8376	146.8414	146.8528
GBP/USD	1.9551	1.9691	1.9738	1.9784	1.9878	1.9925	1.9971	2.0112
USD/JPY	105.13	105.93	106.20	106.46	107.00	107.26	107.53	108.33
EUR/JPY	152.86	154.79	155.43	156.07	157.35	157.99	158.64	160.56

Fibonacci Retracement Levels:
Pairs	EUR/USD	GBP/USD	USD/JPY	EUR/JPY
100.0%	1.4779	1.9848	107.89	159.11
61.8%	1.4621	1.9653	106.78	156.44
50.0%	1.4572	1.9593	106.44	155.61
38.2%	1.4523	1.9533	106.09	154.78
23.6%	1.4463	1.9458	105.67	153.76
0.0%	1.4365	1.9338	104.98	152.11

Euro Rises as Dollar Weak on Average Releases

Today EUR/USD again showed a good level of gains, recovering from the major drop that was seen on Monday. It's already up by almost 0.8% and is looking strong. The reason for this behavior lies in the good Eurozone fundamental data and average data from U.S. today.

Initial jobless claims report for the last week showed an insignificant drop by 1,000 compared to previous 302,000 (which has been revised up from 301,000). The analysts expected a growth to 320,000 that week.

The report by National Association of Realtors on Existing home sales in December showed a bigger than expected decline — to 4.89 million from 5,00 million in November (annually adjusted).

Crude oil inventories in U.S. continued to grow in the past week, rising up 2.3 million barrels, compared to previous value. This growth can mean a domestic demand decline and the wish to increase the inventories while the oil prices are quite low.

Forex Technical Analysis for 01/21-01/25 Week

EUR/USD trend: sell.
GBP/USD trend: sell.
USD/JPY trend: sell.
EUR/JPY trend: sell.

Floor Pivot Points:
Pair	3rd Sup	2nd Sup	1st Sup	Pivot	1st Res	2nd Res	3rd Res
EUR/USD	1.4167	1.4378	1.4499	1.4710	1.4831	1.5042	1.5163
GBP/USD	1.9169	1.9340	1.9447	1.9618	1.9725	1.9896	2.0003
USD/JPY	102.49	104.20	105.53	107.24	108.57	110.28	111.61
EUR/JPY	148.20	151.94	154.07	157.81	159.94	163.68	165.81

Woodie's Pivot Points:
Pair	2nd Sup	1st Sup	Pivot	1st Res	2nd Res
EUR/USD	1.4356	1.4453	1.4688	1.4785	1.5020
GBP/USD	1.9340	1.9447	1.9618	1.9725	1.9896
USD/JPY	104.20	105.53	107.24	108.57	110.28
EUR/JPY	151.94	154.07	157.81	159.94	163.68

Camarilla Pivot Points:
Pair	4th Sup	3rd Sup	2nd Sup	1st Sup	1st Res	2nd Res	3rd Res	4th Res
EUR/USD	1.4436	1.4528	1.4558	1.4589	1.4649	1.4680	1.4710	1.4802
GBP/USD	1.9400	1.9477	1.9502	1.9528	1.9578	1.9604	1.9629	1.9706
USD/JPY	105.18	106.01	106.29	106.57	107.13	107.41	107.69	108.52
EUR/JPY	152.96	154.58	155.11	155.65	156.73	157.27	157.80	159.42

Tom DeMark's Pivot Points:
Pair:	EUR/USD	GBP/USD	USD/JPY	EUR/JPY
Resistance:	1.4937	1.9672	109.43	161.81
Support:	1.4605	1.9394	106.39	155.94

Fibonacci Retracement Levels:
Pairs	EUR/USD	GBP/USD	USD/JPY	EUR/JPY
100.0%	1.4922	1.9790	108.96	161.56
61.8%	1.4795	1.9684	107.80	159.32
50.0%	1.4756	1.9651	107.44	158.63
38.2%	1.4717	1.9618	107.08	157.93
23.6%	1.4668	1.9578	106.64	157.08
0.0%	1.4590	1.9512	105.92	155.69

Euro Down Fastest Since December

EUR/USD unexpectedly fell today after the moderate fundamental statistics were released in the United States. This currency pair declined from 1.4803 opening price to 1.4656 making it the largest daily drop for EUR/USD since December 14.

CPI (Consumer Price Index) in December showed a better than expected growth, increasing by 0.3% - still lower than in previous month (0.8%), but above the forecasted 0.2%.

Net foreign purchases of the long-term securities in November were at quite a high level - $90.9 billion, but lower than October's $114.0 billion.

December's industrial production stalled with 0% change, but that can be considered a good news, because the negative change has been expected. Industrial capacity utilization dropped slightly, going down from 81.6% (revised from 81.5%) to 81.4%.

U.S. crude oil inventories last week showed a gain at last increasing by almost 4.3 billion barrels after the previous report of 6.7 billion barrels dropdown.

Forex Trading Tips

Why do hundreds of thousands online traders and investors trade the forex market every day, and how do they make money doing it?

This two-part report clearly and simply details essential tips on how to avoid typical pitfalls and start making more money in your forex trading.

1. Trade pairs, not currencies - Like any relationship, you have to know both sides. Success or failure in forex trading depends upon being right about both currencies and how they impact one another, not just one.
   
2. Knowledge is Power - When starting out trading forex online, it is essential that you understand the basics of this market if you want to make the most of your investments.
   

   The main forex influencer is global news and events. For example, say an ECB statement is released on European interest rates which typically will cause a flurry of activity. Most newcomers react violently to news like this and close their positions and subsequently miss out on some of the best trading opportunities by waiting until the market calms down. The potential in the forex market is in the volatility, not in its tranquility.
   

3. Unambitious trading - Many new traders will place very tight orders in order to take very small profits. This is not a sustainable approach because although you may be profitable in the short run (if you are lucky), you risk losing in the longer term as you have to recover the difference between the bid and the ask price before you can make any profit and this is much more difficult when you make small trades than when you make larger ones.
   
4. Over-cautious trading - Like the trader who tries to take small incremental profits all the time, the trader who places tight stop losses with a retail forex broker is doomed. As we stated above, you have to give your position a fair chance to demonstrate its ability to produce. If you don't place reasonable stop losses that allow your trade to do so, you will always end up undercutting yourself and losing a small piece of your deposit with every trade.
   
5. Independence - If you are new to forex, you will either decide to trade your own money or to have a broker trade it for you. So far, so good. But your risk of losing increases exponentially if you either of these two things:
   

   Interfere with what your broker is doing on your behalf (as his strategy might require a long gestation period);
   

   Seek advice from too many sources - multiple input will only result in multiple losses. Take a position, ride with it and then analyse the outcome - by yourself, for yourself.
   

6. Tiny margins - Margin trading is one of the biggest advantages in trading forex as it allows you to trade amounts far larger than the total of your deposits. However, it can also be dangerous to novice traders as it can appeal to the greed factor that destroys many forex traders. The best guideline is to increase your leverage in line with your experience and success.
   
7. No strategy - The aim of making money is not a trading strategy. A strategy is your map for how you plan to make money. Your strategy details the approach you are going to take, which currencies you are going to trade and how you will manage your risk. Without a strategy, you may become one of the 90% of new traders that lose their money.
   
8. Trading Off-Peak Hours - Professional FX traders, option traders, and hedge funds posses a huge advantage over small retail traders during off-peak hours (between 2200 CET and 1000 CET) as they can hedge their positions and move them around when there is far small trade volume is going through (meaning their risk is smaller). The best advice for trading during off peak hours is simple - don't.
   
9. The only way is up/down - When the market is on its way up, the market is on its way up. When the market is going down, the market is going down. That's it. There are many systems which analyse past trends, but none that can accurately predict the future. But if you acknowledge to yourself that all that is happening at any time is that the market is simply moving, you'll be amazed at how hard it is to blame anyone else.
   
10. Trade on the news - Most of the really big market moves occur around news time. Trading volume is high and the moves are significant; this means there is no better time to trade than when news is released. This is when the big players adjust their positions and prices change resulting in a serious currency flow.
    
11. Exiting Trades - If you place a trade and it's not working out for you, get out. Don't compound your mistake by staying in and hoping for a reversal. If you're in a winning trade, don't talk yourself out of the position because you're bored or want to relieve stress; stress is a natural part of trading; get used to it.
    
12. Don't trade too short-term - If you are aiming to make less than 20 points profit, don't undertake the trade. The spread you are trading on will make the odds against you far too high.
    
13. Don't be smart - The most successful traders I know keep their trading simple. They don't analyse all day or research historical trends and track web logs and their results are excellent.
    
14. Tops and Bottoms - There are no real "bargains" in trading foreign exchange. Trade in the direction the price is going in and you're results will be almost guaranteed to improve.
    
15. Ignoring the technicals- Understanding whether the market is over-extended long or short is a key indicator of price action. Spikes occur in the market when it is moving all one way.
    
16. Emotional Trading - Without that all-important strategy, you're trades essentially are thoughts only and thoughts are emotions and a very poor foundation for trading. When most of us are upset and emotional, we don't tend to make the wisest decisions. Don't let your emotions sway you.
    
17. Confidence - Confidence comes from successful trading. If you lose money early in your trading career it's very difficult to regain it; the trick is not to go off half-cocked; learn the business before you trade. Remember, knowledge is power.

The second and final part of this report clearly and simply details more essential tips on how to avoid the pitfalls and start making more money in your forex trading.

1. Take it like a man - If you decide to ride a loss, you are simply displaying stupidity and cowardice. It takes guts to accept your loss and wait for tomorrow to try again. Sticking to a bad position ruins lots of traders - permanently. Try to remember that the market often behaves illogically, so don't get commit to any one trade; it's just a trade. One good trade will not make you a trading success; it's ongoing regular performance over months and years that makes a good trader.
   
2. Focus - Fantasising about possible profits and then "spending" them before you have realised them is no good. Focus on your current position(s) and place reasonable stop losses at the time you do the trade. Then sit back and enjoy the ride - you have no real control from now on, the market will do what it wants to do.
   
3. Don't trust demos - Demo trading often causes new traders to learn bad habits. These bad habits, which can be very dangerous in the long run, come about because you are playing with virtual money. Once you know how your broker's system works, start trading small amounts and only take the risk you can afford to win or lose.
   
4. Stick to the strategy - When you make money on a well thought-out strategic trade, don't go and lose half of it next time on a fancy; stick to your strategy and invest profits on the next trade that matches your long-term goals.
   
5. Trade today - Most successful day traders are highly focused on what's happening in the short-term, not what may happen over the next month. If you're trading with 40 to 60-point stops focus on what's happening today as the market will probably move too quickly to consider the long-term future. However, the long-term trends are not unimportant; they will not always help you though if you're trading intraday.
   

6. The clues are in the details - The bottom line on your account balance doesn't tell the whole story. Consider individual trade details; analyse your losses and the telling losing streaks. Generally, traders that make money without suffering significant daily losses have the best chance of sustaining positive performance in the long term.
   

7. Simulated Results - Be very careful and wary about infamous "black box" systems. These so-called trading signal systems do not often explain exactly how the trade signals they generate are produced. Typically, these systems only show their track record of extraordinary results - historical results. Successfully predicting future trade scenarios is altogether more complex. The high-speed algorithmic capabilities of these systems provide significant retrospective trading systems, not ones which will help you trade effectively in the future.
   

8. Get to know one cross at a time - Each currency pair is unique, and has a unique way of moving in the marketplace. The forces which cause the pair to move up and down are individual to each cross, so study them and learn from your experience and apply your learning to one cross at a time.
9. Risk Reward - If you put a 20 point stop and a 50 point profit your chances of winning are probably about 1-3 against you. In fact, given the spread you're trading on, it's more likely to be 1-4. Play the odds the market gives you.
   

10. Trading for Wrong Reasons - Don't trade if you are bored, unsure or reacting on a whim. The reason that you are bored in the first place is probably because there is no trade to make in the first place. If you are unsure, it's probably because you can't see the trade to make, so don't make one.
    

11. Zen Trading- Even when you have taken a position in the markets, you should try and think as you would if you hadn't taken one. This level of detachment is essential if you want to retain your clarity of mind and avoid succumbing to emotional impulses and therefore increasing the likelihood of incurring losses. To achieve this, you need to cultivate a calm and relaxed outlook. Trade in brief periods of no more than a few hours at a time and accept that once the trade has been made, it's out of your hands.
    

12. Determination - Once you have decided to place a trade, stick to it and let it run its course. This means that if your stop loss is close to being triggered, let it trigger. If you move your stop midway through a trade's life, you are more than likely to suffer worse moves against you. Your determination must be show itself when you acknowledge that you got it wrong, so get out.
    

13. Short-term Moving Average Crossovers - This is one of the most dangerous trade scenarios for non professional traders. When the short-term moving average crosses the longer-term moving average it only means that the average price in the short run is equal to the average price in the longer run. This is neither a bullish nor bearish indication, so don't fall into the trap of believing it is one.
    

14. Stochastic - Another dangerous scenario. When it first signals an exhausted condition that's when the big spike in the "exhausted" currency cross tends to occur. My advice is to buy on the first sign of an overbought cross and then sell on the first sign of an oversold one. This approach means that you'll be with the trend and have successfully identified a positive move that still has some way to go. So if percentage K and percentage D are both crossing 80, then buy! (This is the same on sell side, where you sell at 20).
    

15. One cross is all that counts - EURUSD seems to be trading higher, so you buy GBPUSD because it appears not to have moved yet. This is dangerous. Focus on one cross at a time - if EURUSD looks good to you, then just buy EURUSD.
    

16. Wrong Broker - A lot of FOREX brokers are in business only to make money from yours. Read forums, blogs and chats around the net to get an unbiased opinion before you choose your broker.
    
17. Too bullish - Trading statistics show that 90% of most traders will fail at some point. Being too bullish about your trading aptitude can be fatal to your long-term success. You can always learn more about trading the markets, even if you are currently successful in your trades. Stay modest, and keep your eyes open for new ideas and bad habits you might be falling in to.
    

18. Interpret forex news yourself - Learn to read the source documents of forex news and events - don't rely on the interpretations of news media or others.
    

How to avoid typical pitfalls and start making more money in your forex trading

Fiorenzo Fontana, a trader and analyst at UBS wrote a very interesting article containing a lot of tips on how to avoid typical pitfalls and start making more money in forex trading.

All of his tips are very interesting and useful. Some of the less known are as follows:

• Trade pairs, not currencies
• Don't place very tight orders
• Use reasonable stop losses
• Increase your leverage in line with your experience and success
• Don't trade during off peak hours
• The best time to trade is when news is released
• If you place a trade and it's not working out for you, get out
• Trade in the direction the price is going
• Learn the business before you trade - possibly the most important tip!

In the second part of the article, Fiorenzo gives a number of interesting tips relating to trader's behavior and psychology. Again, some of the less known are:

• Focus on your current position(s) and place reasonable stop losses at the time you do the trade
• Focus on one cross at a time
• Don't trust demos - demo trading often causes new traders to learn bad habits. Once you know how your broker's system works, start trading small amounts and only take the risk you can afford to win or lose (new traders - remember that!)
• Stick to your strategy and invest profits on the next trade that matches your long-term goals
• Don't trade if you are bored, unsure or reacting on a whim
• Read forums, blogs and chats around the net to get an unbiased opinion before you choose your broker